I don't know about you, but when Jack Welch has questions about things, I listen to what he's asking. After all, the guy's not just some hack on the Intarweb. He probably knows a few things, and a few people, and he's done some amazing things in this lifetime. And some stupid ones (involving women). But in this case, I'm willing to bet that he's onto something.
So here he explains what he was talking about when he tweeted about a conspiracy in the jobs numbers last week. What's remarkable here is that we've come to accept this kind of statistical hoohaa as normal. Of course the jobs numbers didn't improve last month, but who's to say???????
Nope, you can have your own opinion, but you can't have your own facts. Once we dig down on these numbers, it appears that the bias shows through easily.
Enjoy.
UPDATE: As of 10/17/12 or even earlier, it turns out that revisions were announced to the "low" numbers. It seems that some folks hadn't reported all of their numbers for new job claims or something that week. Surprised? No.
Wednesday, October 10, 2012
Wednesday, August 15, 2012
Politics can't be ignored, unfortunately
I hate to get too political here, but it's been on my mind lately, and it probably should be on yours, too.
It's very easy to become complacent, or, worse yet, paralyzingly cynical about politics. But the truth of the matter is that if you don't engage in politics you are going to be subjected to the whims of those who do. Whether you're scared of the Tea Party or Sheila Jackson Lee, you need to figure out where you stand on things and have a political stand figured out.
Why? Because it's your responsibility to the rest of us. It's part of being a good citizen. Being able to choose a candidate or party platform based on informed judgement is one of the rights that borders on being a hard obligation in our society.
I promise that if you don't assert your views, and know what they are, and why you have them, there are plenty of folks out there (on either side) who are just waiting to either help you with that, or who will just assume that one or two characteristics of your life can speak for your politics.
Even if you refuse to engage politics, sooner or later it will engage you. Figure out where you stand on things and stand there.
Don't ever bother arguing with zealots, but when someone asks for your opinion you should make it known. That takes some preparation.
For example: I attach far more importance to monetary & spending issues, and gun rights, than I do to social agenda items such as gay marriage.
In fact, I've long suggested that our LGBTQIA friends should be socially pressured into marrying, just like the rest of us. Why should breeders have all the fun? Then they can learn about the politics of divorce and in-laws and all that crap we need to deal with, just like the stereotype.
Why is this relevant? Because when someone on the Right makes this a huge agenda item and says that "gay rights" are destroying America, I call B.S. on it. I'm a Christian, I have a family, and I don't care what people do in their bedrooms. I only care what they do in the political realm. And I try to say so whenever I can. And when someone on the Left portrays Christians as unworthy of their opinions, I call B.S. on that, too.
For example: I attach far more importance to monetary & spending issues, and gun rights, than I do to social agenda items such as gay marriage.
In fact, I've long suggested that our LGBTQIA friends should be socially pressured into marrying, just like the rest of us. Why should breeders have all the fun? Then they can learn about the politics of divorce and in-laws and all that crap we need to deal with, just like the stereotype.
Why is this relevant? Because when someone on the Right makes this a huge agenda item and says that "gay rights" are destroying America, I call B.S. on it. I'm a Christian, I have a family, and I don't care what people do in their bedrooms. I only care what they do in the political realm. And I try to say so whenever I can. And when someone on the Left portrays Christians as unworthy of their opinions, I call B.S. on that, too.
So even though this isn't a pet issue of mine, I have a reasoned opinion on it. I can defend my opinion without resorting to logical loop-de-loops or Biblical passages.
To have an opinion, you must be able to defend it. As a member of society, we're required to have opinions or we're not really doing our jobs.
Again, pick a stand. Find some things that will motivate you to engage and stand on those things and your reasoned opinions. Be sure to keep up with those things that are most important to you.
To have an opinion, you must be able to defend it. As a member of society, we're required to have opinions or we're not really doing our jobs.
Again, pick a stand. Find some things that will motivate you to engage and stand on those things and your reasoned opinions. Be sure to keep up with those things that are most important to you.
Corn + ethanol mandate + drought = government purchase of meat?
President Obama recently spoke in Iowa about how the USDA is now acting to buy meat and boost meat prices here. To quote the Prez and the article:
"Today the Department of Agriculture announced that it will buy up to $100 million worth of pork products, $50 million worth of chicken, and $20 million worth of lamb and farm-raised catfish," Obama explained to reporters in front of a drought-stricken cornfield.
"Prices are low, farmers and ranchers need help, so it makes sense," Obama explained. "It makes sense for farmers who get to sell more of their product, and it makes sense for taxpayers who will save money because we're getting food we would have bought anyway at a better price."
This can only "just make sense" to someone who presumes that the government's role is the most clearly defined here. I would agree that the government role has become the most prominent, as the article does: ethanol requirements drive this whole picture.
The author says it plainer than I could.
Most of us have already figured out that ethanol isn't a long-term solution. I hope the Prez figures it out sometime too. And before he cripples the oil and gas industry altogether.
"Today the Department of Agriculture announced that it will buy up to $100 million worth of pork products, $50 million worth of chicken, and $20 million worth of lamb and farm-raised catfish," Obama explained to reporters in front of a drought-stricken cornfield.
"Prices are low, farmers and ranchers need help, so it makes sense," Obama explained. "It makes sense for farmers who get to sell more of their product, and it makes sense for taxpayers who will save money because we're getting food we would have bought anyway at a better price."
This can only "just make sense" to someone who presumes that the government's role is the most clearly defined here. I would agree that the government role has become the most prominent, as the article does: ethanol requirements drive this whole picture.
The author says it plainer than I could.
Most of us have already figured out that ethanol isn't a long-term solution. I hope the Prez figures it out sometime too. And before he cripples the oil and gas industry altogether.
Tuesday, August 7, 2012
Dr. Laffer on stimulus spending
Art Laffer has a WSJ piece explaining the efficacy of "stimulus" spending here. I'm sure there's something he's missing, but the part about taking a dollar from a producer and redistributing it to a non-producer rings true.
If you're wondering where you've heard the name before, he's the guy who suggested that there's a tax rate that maximizes tax revenues, and above that rate folks hide income or quit working (revenues go down regardless).
If you're wondering where you've heard the name before, he's the guy who suggested that there's a tax rate that maximizes tax revenues, and above that rate folks hide income or quit working (revenues go down regardless).
Wednesday, July 18, 2012
Where is the money coming from, exactly?
Dr. Greg Mankiw of that conservative thinktank that is the Harvard economics department. He has a neat little piece today outlining why we're seeing a retreat from reason in this country (and proving d'Toqueville right).
Here.
Here.
Friday, July 6, 2012
Great site for iPad users
I just found a terrific site for iPad users who want to learn about annotating research and writing, etc. on the iPad. http://academicipad.stevendkrause.com/
I'll never advocate the iPad as a writing tool (typing tool) but it's the ultimate organizing tool. And as I've mentioned before, iAnnotate makes it the ultimate research tool. Dr. Krause seems to "get it" with most things iPad.
Plus, you gotta admire someone who wrote their dissertation on a PowerBook 100.
I'll never advocate the iPad as a writing tool (typing tool) but it's the ultimate organizing tool. And as I've mentioned before, iAnnotate makes it the ultimate research tool. Dr. Krause seems to "get it" with most things iPad.
Plus, you gotta admire someone who wrote their dissertation on a PowerBook 100.
Thursday, July 5, 2012
Hard to believe: Congress was/is on the take! Countrywide paid off Congresscritters
There are several good articles about this one out there today, but the correction at the top of USA Today's page was priceless. Here.
Turns out Congressional types (staffers included) were on the take from Countrywide Financial for years and years and years. Turns out Fannie was in the middle of it. Faithful readers of this space won't be shocked.
Turns out Congressional types (staffers included) were on the take from Countrywide Financial for years and years and years. Turns out Fannie was in the middle of it. Faithful readers of this space won't be shocked.
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