Tuesday, August 31, 2010

Columnist suspended for showing how the journalistas run in herds

A sports columnist tweeted that Roethlisberger was going to get a 5-game suspension, and now he's been suspended by The Washington Post. He claimed he was trying to demonstrate how the media these days will run pretty much any rumor they hear.

I'm with the guy -- he made a bunch of jughead sportswriter-types look like, well, jughead sportswriter-types. Journalists these days seem to lack any kind of research ability and any sort of writing ability, although there are rare exceptions. But being a sportswriter for so long must mean that you've got some extra special talent. I mean, this guy actually ENTERTAINED people who read about sports. Go figure.

Thankfully, with so many of them out of work, maybe the decent, talented ones will find something more productive to do with their time. We can only hope that it works out for them.

Who is John Galt?

829 banks on troubled list, says FDIC

Certainly the number of "problem" banks is on the rise, but far more telling is the pattern of where the banks have failed. The graphic that goes along with the CNN page here leads to three lists, of failed banks in '10, '09 and '08.

I'm not sure what "problem" means here either, and I don't think it's supposed to be obvious.

I need to do some numbers using the actual lists, and if I find a source for those (outside of CNN) I'll post a link. Might be nice to sort this based on size and state and see if any patterns emerge. I also need to look more closely at that KBW Bank Index, although it looks pretty volatile. Hard to see how banks can be that volatile -- most small bank stocks don't really trade.

I bet a lot of those little tiny banks, especially in 09 and 10, were hammered by write-downs of Freddie and Fannie assets. Just a hunch.

The failed bank list at FDIC itself is here. It does not have all of the info that the CNN page does, but it has links to each bank.

While you're there, take a look at the page for jobs and in particular, stimulus jobs. I think it's dated 10/30/09 -- back a while ago. Plus, how do we measure "created or saved" ? What does that mean, anyway? Are those government jobs? If so, that would explain how Cali got so many I guess.

I'm troubled by the bank numbers, to be sure, but almost as troubling is the last graphic.

UPDATE
I'm linking a video from newsy.com on FDIC numbers and market self-corrections. It's here, check it out. It's a nice summary of what's out there about this. Thanks to Kate Kerans at Newsy.com for sending me a link.

National Center for Policy Analysis

Got an email today from the NCPA, linking to their site on health care reform. There are links here for two different educational pamphlets on the health care provisions that go into effect over the next three years.

Pay provisions of Dodd-Frank bill another jobs program for accountants, lawyers

Posted here so we can remember!

An FT article today about how the CEO pay structure mandates in the new financial reform bill will turn into a compliance nightmare.

Sounds like SarBox 2.0, doesn't it?

Best part is where someone says that it's all about politics. Yep, you heard it here first!

Looks like the executive pay thing is going to heat up again. Class warfare has many fronts, I guess.

Friday, August 27, 2010

Public sector and private sector pensions, big difference

WSJ has a good piece by the Governator on the relative growth of public and private unemployment in California. It kind of explains why the whole country is in big trouble unless it can rein in pensions for public employees and reduce the per capita costs of government.

Regulatory Risk Example: Ban of Lead Bullets Coming?

In the banking class we're always talking about the risk of regulators changing their mind on a whim. A classic example is the debate over ammunition "marking," materials for ammunition, and now, banning lead bullets.

All of this has been discussed before, and it will be discussed again. But I'd imagine that there are plenty of politicians who don't want to see this discussed just right now.

Of course, the NRA has come out against this, afraid that it will be a "camel's nose" situation.

AS OF 8/30:
Looks like the EPA is backing off on this. Since it's been on the table now for about 25 years or so, it's probably a matter of time before it gets tacked onto a jobs bill or something.

Fed hedges on release of info

The Federal Reserve is still trying to keep from releasing all of its lending documents, even though a Federal court has ruled that it should.

Bloomberg has a story here today. I'm glad they credit the late Mark Pittman with having the lead on this.

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Holy Cow! Barney Frank says abolish Freddie and Fannie

From Friday on CNBC:

Holy Cow!!!!! Barney Frank is NOW saying that we should get rid of Freddie and Fannie ASAP.

And he admits that the whole subprime housing thing was a crappy experiment.

In other news: white is black, good is bad, etc.

To quote:

And he went on to say that “it was a great mistake to push lower-income people into housing they couldn’t afford and couldn’t really handle once they had it.” He then added, “I had been too sanguine about Fannie and Freddie.”

When I asked Frank about a long-term phase-out plan that would shrink Fannie and Freddie portfolios and mortgage-purchase limits, and merge the agencies into the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) for a separate low-income program that would get government out of middle-income housing subsidies, he replied: “Larry, that, I think, is exactly what we should be doing.”

Yeah, yah think?

See what's happening here? Fannie and Freddie are going away whether Barney Frank has anything ELSE to do with it or not, and he's covering his butt. Making it look like HIS idea. Incredible. This is WORLD CLASS CYA, like at an Olympic level.

This guy is the [smishhhhh]Michael Phelps[smisshhhhh] of political revisionism. Pass the chips.

Again, he thinks we are a bunch of morons out here. Isn't that obvious by now. He knows WHAT, we know NAUGHT.

For the folks following along at home:

Fannie and Freddie worked just great until FHA and HUD and Congress decided to use them as their own personal piggy bank, starting in the early 90s. Maybe 1991 was a banner year for that. Subsequent administrations have dogpiled on these two until they control 90+ percent of the home mortgages in this country.

Uh, they WILL BE going away. Barney Frank will have nearly nothing to do with it. They account for upwards of $15 Trillion in some estimates, and some of that is really insolvent. Unlike the 80s crisis, a great deal of the underlying real estate in this case is tremendously overleveraged, and so defaults on those homes cannot be recouped from selling the property. In Cali there are hundreds of developments that are virtually vacant, and near nothing; same in AZ. Fannie & Freddie pumped bucks into housing markets and neighborhoods that should never have existed otherwise, so how you sell those is beyond me.

These guys are priceless. This is almost as good as Chris Dodd getting sweetheart mortgages.

UPDATE: Barney Frank rips into Fannie on foreclosures, 9/24/10.

I just doesn't get any better than this! Comedy that writes itself.

Wednesday, August 11, 2010

Thoughtful piece from Weekly Standard

It's the ideology, stupid.

Housing Riots: Why would we expect anything different?

A note from the Atlanta Urinal-Constip... er, Journal-Constitution about a "riot" at a housing voucher giveaway.

Why should we expect any different? Here allocation was by standing in line. Not by need (very flawed, but better than queue-standing). Not by who had the highest grades (error-prone, with grade inflation), or made the most effort (also flawed).

"People began lining up at the shopping center two days ago, and by Wednesday morning the crowd had grown to over several thousand people."

"The Housing Choice Voucher Program, called Section 8, subsidized the rents of low-income families living in apartments and houses that are privately owned. The federal program makes up the difference in rent that the poor can afford and the fair market value for each area.

The federal government has specific standards for its subsidized properties but at the same time landlords are assured an income.

Only families with incomes no more than half the median income for the area qualify. The median income for the East Point area is less than $32,000, according to Census data. It is up to the renter to find a place that meets HUD standards, which includes being 90 percent to 110 percent of the “local fair market rent.”


But in Hotlanta, if you're willing to stand in line (and have nothing better to do with your time) you can get this special coupon that discounts your already discounted public assistance rent. If you're out looking for a job, or a better job, or taking care of your kids, etc. you don't have time to get the discount. Wonderful.
[Sounds like some landlord welfare is going on here. How cosy! Hey, how can the rest of us get in on the game? After all, we're the ones paying the bills around here.]

In Somalia, food allocation is done by who has the guns. Same with plenty of other places in Asia and Africa.

Whenever I hear the term "Third World" I laugh. Poverty is among other things a mentality, a deficit of spirit. In this country we have some who choose to stay in that place, and some who don't. In fact, lots of immigrants, legal or otherwise, come here and succeed all the time. Over & above those who were here by birthright. Strange? No, not strange at all -- if we continue to give people things, they eventually forget how to do it themselves. And come to expect it. And riot and complain when they don't get it. Same with education, food stamps and lots of other things.

It's a moral hazard problem. Just like subprime lending and HUD home loans. It doesn't HAVE to be, but that's how it ends up.

People will do what they have incentives to do. They will not do what they have no incentives to do. How hard is that to understand, folks? To paraphrase Larry Summers: People never wash rented cars.

Fall semester approaches, new options for MBA/MS students

Greetings!

I hope folks are getting ready for classes in the fall. As soon as I finish the summer classes I'll put the finishing touches on syllabi and junk.

Sometimes it's tough to fit everything into a semester. If you've had trouble scheduling enough classes, please note that this semester, for the first time, MBA/MS students can enroll in my Contemporary Financial Institutions class. Either online or face-to-face (Wednesday night). I can promise that it will be worth your time: we'll cover the financial crisis, the history of banks and regulation, risk management, and bank lending. It's a lot of reading, but I think most students enjoy it.

We're also offering more online sections than ever before, which may be more convenient for some people. One caveat, though: online classes at UHCL aren't "easy" just because they're online. For some folks, working alone with prepared materials is a better way of doing it, but most of us enjoy the interactive nature of face-to-face courses. Whatever your definition of "easy," our online courses generally aren't. So weigh the tradeoffs before jumping feet first into an online semester.

If you have questions about particular classes or course loads, prerequisites, or anything, you can always contact the specific faculty or the advising office. That's why we're here!

Feds reconsider the goal of home ownership (25 years too late)

Uh, it's not the GOAL OF HOME OWNERSHIP that's the problem. It's the push to give EVERYONE a house, even those who can't afford them.

USA Today has a story about how policymakers are having a conference Tuesday to reconsider the role of home ownership and what to do about Freddie and Fannie.

I'm going to bet that they do NOTHING before the midterm elections. Call me cynical.

"We have committed to having a proposal in place by early next year," says Federal Housing Administration Commissioner David Stevens. "This is not about delaying. This is about being thoughtful."

Bwaaaaaahahahaha. Whatever you say man.

Again, it isn't Freddie and Fannie that didn't work. They worked GREAT before Congress decided to use them for social engineering. Or, as some have termed it, socialism. Those two orgs were Congress' own little slush fund there for a couple of decades. Oops.

Some really cynical folks have posited that some politicians on the Left actually set out to undermine the whole home ownership system in the first place because that would force the middle class to recognize the plight of the "less fortunate." There's plenty of evidence there, I can't say I disagree with all of it. Washington often lives in a fantasy land of its very own. If they see a pot of money, they think nothing of redistributing it, or pushing a healthy process to the point of breaking in the name of populism.

"Dr. Marx, white courtesy phone. Paging Dr. Marx."

Rand called this the looting mentality. Maybe it's just that simple. Those folks in DC can't create, but they sure can try to hand out favors.

I don't want to be paranoid here, but we're getting to the point where even my healthy skepticism of conspiracy theories is getting pushed to the limit. Some of these guys in DC, Barney Frank chief among them, have no clue how the world works, and they're willing to do anything in the name of govmint and the peepul. Scaaary.

Still Standing, a soldier's story

I heard Chris Baker's interview with John Kriesel this morning, and found it very inspirational. Kriesel lost both legs and two close friends when a bomb went off in Iraq a few years ago. I haven't read the book yet, but I'm sure there's lots to learn there.

Sgt. Kriesel's attitude is most impressive. He's devoted himself to living his life according to the second chance given him by the help of others and living the life that his lost friends cannot. Admirable in this day and age. He spoke of the sacrifice that folks at his wife's company here in Houston, Crane Worldwide, made so that she could be by his side for 8-9 months of recovery. Just amazing effort by the people of this company, and the military people that helped him get well.

These days we need all the inspiration we can get. This guy's story, and the story of the life that he's learned to live, is a wonderful way to remember why we keep getting up and going every day.

Tuesday, August 10, 2010

Latest on flood insurance

I hate to link to the Houston Chronicle, but they had a story yesterday about the pending flood insurance refunding due in September.

Flood insurance is in the red, perpetually, because it isn't insurance, it's a wealth transfer program. As it mentions in the article (citing the Cato Institute) flood insurance encourages people to live in the wrong places.

What we need to worry about, I think, is that somebody decides that EVERYONE needs to buy flood insurance, even those folks not in flood zones. That's the only way a non-insurance insurance scheme works, that is, to explicitly tax those NOT in flood zones to pay for those actually IN flood zones.

Wouldn't that be a MANDATE?

Hey, works with car insurance.

Texas vs. EPA, Round 1

This article is from back in May, but it does a good job of filling in the timeline on the EPA situation. More has happened since then, and as people send in links I'll post them.

Some very cynical people have wondered whether Texas is paying a price for being a red state in a blue-state administration. One would have to be very cynical indeed to take that view.

Sunday, August 8, 2010

Anchor babies 101

Just as the anchor baby debate is heating up locally, we get some stats from Parkland hospital in Dallas, the state recordholder for births to citizens of foreign states.

11,000 plus per year. And counting.

Saturday, August 7, 2010

Taxes for environmental purposes, says the UN

A UN body has decided that we'll have to have new taxes in order to account for necessary environmental regulations and changes. Just more to suggest that the whole thing is a big wealth-transfer machine.

Thursday, August 5, 2010

The Death of the Traditional Bookstore, Part 1

From a thread on a 'net board:

[I had posted that USED books were the way to go, because new books were crap. I expand on this here.]

Whatever. The last dozen paperbacks I bought new fell apart, a couple half way through the book.

Bindings on books today just ain't what they were, even 20 years ago. Textbooks have held up OK, but that's changing - publishers have figured out that if they make trade paperbacks of everything, or cheapen the hardback bindings, the books won't hold up the secondary market.

As for content, wow. So much of the newer stuff that I see at Borders is complete crap, even from known authors. I don't read it all the way through, of course, but a lot of the celebrated writing out there doesn't bear reading through. Junk.

So, to the extent that ebooks allow us to sort through the crap easier, they'll be more and more popular. Of course, ebooks and self-publishing create another noise issue, because any moron can publish whenever they want to. The aid of electronic tools to search, scan and focus on what we like may not be able to overtake the plunge in the signal-to-noise ratio that is ebooks. So far the Internet is gaining with respect to noise, too, so I'm not too hopeful about the ebook phenomenon taking off on its own merit. It will likely continue to be a supplement to printed books or a way for a small number of people to participate in something they already did. It has the potential to do so much more.

[this last paragraph is why I posted the exerpt -- the advantage of electronic tools must overcome the noise, or none of this stuff adds value. The same transaction cost economics applies to ebooks and the 'net as a whole.]

Mission focus, latest addition

From the latest Business Week, a story about an ad exec who decided to pull a Jerry Maguire.

Alex Bogusky probably doesn't believe in all the things I believe in, but he is surely a bright guy, and he obviously believes in hard work and professionalism. He must be very brave, too.

I applaud him, and hope that the youth of today would find him to be a role model.

From all appearances, he finally figured out that some things are more important than others.

He was just "selling pizzas," and finally realized it. He was helping other people sell things to kids that they didn't need.

He took the plunge and decided to get out at the top. That's happening a lot these days. Ayn Rand wrote a whole book about it. This may not BE that type of drop out, but who knows?

Some of us refuse to just "sell pizzas." Our lives mean more than that. In Mr. Bogusky's case, it was evident that his professional life was inconsistent with his evolving personal values.

That, or he got out because he felt he could afford to.

Rock bands do that all the time. But even then, they don't stop playing music all day, they just stop doing it for cash. The creative thing doesn't go away, the drive to achieve doesn't go away, but the need to support this huge glowworm of followers gets old in a hurry and they get out. Some can handle it, and some can't.

Let's hope Mr. Bogusky can find his Raison d'etre elsewhere. Good for him.

UPDATE

I've linked here to an adweek story/blog about the "midlife crisis" aspect of this, with some more "in" stuff.

August Surprise: Home Bailouts?

Maybe the administration has a new bailout program in store, for homeowners and the building industry.

Instead of an October Surprise, we might get an August Surprise.

Does this have anything to do with illegal immigration?

Wednesday, August 4, 2010

Scary stuff: State per capita borrowing

OK, so we all know about the NATIONAL debt, and Freddie and Fannie, etc. And we know that Medicare and Social Security are going to be on a pay-as-you-go basis any time now. Got that.

But NOW it's time to think about bailing out the states.

For all of you who've said "who cares" about how the folks in California or New Yawk decide to run their states, now is the time to start "caring."

CNN has an interactive map of state borrowings per capita. I think the map is instructional in several ways. Note that those with the highest numbers are also those states with the largest union representation in their employee ranks. Also, those states that are borrowing the most heavily are the most hostile to markets and business via taxes or regulations or whatever. Finally, those "in-the-red" blue states are the most generous and "inclusive" with social programs, environmental restrictions and often consider the most "progressive."

If "progressive" means that they're more like Europe, then maybe that's the right word to use.

Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Summer youth program trains protesters (nothing new, by the way)

Reports today of a summer youth employment racket that uses teens for protesting. Nice.

Our tax dollars paying for protesters so they can lobby for more of our tax dollars.

This is the kind of thing that De Tocqueville warned us about. Once the productive are out of the cycle of paying attention, it feeds on itself. ACORN is another good example.

Monday, August 2, 2010

NYT on Autism

An interesting piece on a different approach to helping kids with high-functioning autism. Good for them.

It's "different" because a lot of public schools just figure out ways to warehouse autistic children because they don't know what else to do with them.

Just so we're clear on plagiarism and intellectual property

NYT has another piece on cheating, this time it's plagiarism directly.

I'm really really tired of hearing about how this "new generation" doesn't have a frame of reference for citation and attribution, they just "don't understand" the whole idea of academic citation and why it's right & necessary.

You know what? It's our JOB to TEACH THEM ABOUT IT. I didn't have a frame of reference, either, until about the 6th grade or so. Then one of our teachers taught us about citations and how to do a bibliography. Then Su Harrington made us do bibliographies for our regional science fair stuff a couple of years later, etc.

Duh.

The implication from many in our field, and in library science, and in writing instruction, it seems, is that we're just supposed to accommodate students who don't know how to cite properly, or overlook those (worse) who don't know how to write without plagiarizing or take tests without cheating.

This implication is becoming more and more explicit every semester, especially with the move to "online" instruction. Taking precautions to make sure that students don't cheat or plagiarize gets tougher all the time. Thankfully, UHCL is always honing the system and making it easier to catch cheaters (through automatic Web scanning for papers, for example).

How about this:

If we think students are plagiarizing, we gig them and hold them accountable. Radical, huh? If we think students are cheating in our online classes, we take steps to stop them. Let's not pat them on the head and say it isn't THEIR fault, let's stop the behavior and show them different ways to do things.

Their souls are at stake, literally. How do cheaters FEEL about their cheating? How does cheating impact their self-image, now and later?

We know that these students can DO the work if motivated and monitored properly. We've all seen it.

I say let's give students reasons to be PROUD of their work and their ability, rather than having them do things that will compromise their values (even if they don't know it at the time). Don't let them cheat, don't make cheating OK by looking the other way, etc.

How about THAT for a philosophy of teaching?